刑事侦缉档案3
外贸活力在这里持续迸发_我的网站
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二 | Dr. Alexander Azadgan, professor of business studies and international political economy in Southern California, explains why President Putin's trip to Tehran was so significant and reflects on skyrocketing energy prices as well as the future of the Iran nuclear deal.,Sputnik: How effective was President Putin's visit to Tehran, considering the geopolitical challenges countries face at present?,Dr Alexander Azadgan: Very, very effective. We are witnesses of Gazprom and NIOC, which stands for National Iranian Oil Company, signing a $40 billion contract for Russia to develop six Iranian oilfields in the Persian Gulf. Notably, the Pars field, which is shared between Iran and Qatar. The Qataris call it the North field, Iranians call it the South Pars field. It's one of the biggest underwater natural gas reserves in the world, if not the biggest itself. Qatar and Iran have been sharing it. Iran, of course, has not had the technology to extract as much as the Qataris. Around one-fifth of it is in the Iranian territorial water, four-fifths in Qatari water.,RussiaPutin Praises Record-High Trade Turnover With Iran at Meeting With Raisi19 July, 14:12 GMT,There will also be a product swap exchange between Iran and Russia, completion of LNG projects, liquid natural gas plus construction of gas export pipelines and other scientific and technological cooperation. This oil and gas deal is reportedly the largest in Iran's history, $40 billion. Before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was reneged, French company Total was interested in excavating and helping the Iranians. Of course, they reneged, like so many other things, and Russia has stepped in right now. It's a win-win for both countries, but it has its own complications as well.,Sputnik: Do you agree with President Putin's assertion that Western policies over "the previous decade" were to blame for soaring energy prices?,Dr Azadgan: Iranian relations right now are better than with the previous administration, the Rouhani administration. The conservatives are in charge right now. President Raisi visited Moscow not too long ago. And the conservatives have had the tendency in the past several years to lean more towards Russia, especially with IRGC and all the advancements that that body of military is making. We cannot leave out Iranian internal politics when it comes to the overall Russo-Iranian relations.,RussiaPutin: Western Policies From Last 10 Years to Blame for Soaring Energy Prices20 July, 03:29 GMT,Keep in mind that US invasion and occupation of Iraq, Iraq being one of the top five exporters of oil at that time and one of the top five exporters of oil to United States now, was a catastrophic mistake in a sense that the neocons at that time were delusional to think that by causing havoc in the region, especially obviously toward Iraq, there will be less export of Iraq's oil to the Far East, the growing economies of China, in particular, followed by South Korea and Japan. All that is part of what we are seeing today when it comes to inflation.,Now the supply and demand has not changed in the world - the reason the price of oil has increased is because of the perception of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia to continue. There is no logical reason for this change. I think, unfortunately, with Washington really triggering Russia over NATO's expansion during the past many years, most people think this conflict just started. If you want to go back, it depends on what your frame of reference is. You can go back to 2004 in Ukraine, followed by the Orange Revolution. There's been a lot of political intrusion by Washington and Brussels. And unfortunately, we find ourselves in the current situation, which could affect the entire global economy in a very hyper-inflationary hell, really. This is what economists are most scared of - a hyper inflationary situation.,Sputnik: How much has Europe's decision to turn its back on traditional energy sources added to the present crisis?,Dr Azadgan: With the whole environmental movement, which obviously is of an urgency, we need to realize that green energy is not going to provide the energy demand of 8 billion people. It's just simply not possible. I think we need to be more realistic that obviously oil is going to be with us for a long time. Natural gas is the transitioning method of energy. We will have that for many years, it is cleaner, but both of them are going to be along for a long time. And to start making the change now in such a naive, extreme, erratic way is going to have major economic backlashes.,Not to mention the political turmoil and the geopolitical uncertainty in that part of the world. We need more realism from our policymakers - of course, with Democrats in the White House and Chancellor [Olaf] Scholz in Germany, unfortunately, we are being a little bit too naive and unrealistic when it comes to planning energy resources for the next 60 years.,Sputnik: Russia's deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said that Moscow and Tehran will continue to expand the use of national currencies in foreign trade settlements. How will this affect the dollar's dominance?,Dr Azadgan: Before we even talk about the Iranian rial and the Russian ruble exchange, this is a major breakaway from the past, I would say, 80 years where petroleum was only supposed to be traded in the US dollar given the US dollar’s tremendous power. And unfortunately, we've seen the weaponization of the dollar in the past few decades - this is the problem. Yes, this is a clear and present danger to United States national interests.,WorldTehran Exchange Launches Trading in Iranian Rial/Ruble19 July, 10:06 GMT,Several years ago, China and Russia exchanged an oil contract where the Russians provided oil and natural gas to China and the whole thing was around $400 billion when it was exchanged in rubles and yuan. At that time, US policymakers took notice. And now we are in this situation where because of the US' rash reaction into pushing for a war, believe it or not, between Russia and Ukraine, more countries as a result of that are leaning toward the East. And by east, I mean the shifting of power to China and Russia.,China has tremendous manufacturing capabilities. Russia - the same in addition to tremendous amounts of all sorts of natural resources and rare minerals. In the decades to come, we will see the weakening of the dollar, which would result in the US national debt, which is $28 trillion, more or less. That's going to be a problem that will contribute into inflation. And we saw how Mr Biden had to go to Saudi Arabia and lobby Mohammed bin Salman to open up the coffers of oil so that prices go down. That would have been never possible in the past.,Crude Prices Skyrocket After Biden Returns From Saudi Arabia Without Oil Deal18 July, 15:17 GMT,The US president had to go to Saudi Arabia and beg for oil. Usually that was done through a phone call. And if the answer was ‘No’ by the Saudis, guess what? That would have been a coup in the palace. So, unfortunately, we have put ourselves in a situation where we have lost our leverage or are in the way of losing more leverage.,Sputnik: To what extent will the switch to national currencies help eliminate the effect of Western-imposed sanctions?,Dr Azadgan: That's where we're going: from this point on, because of all the miscalculations and the weaponization of the dollar, countries are eventually going to do that. They're not going to peg their currency against the dollar, which has been the case. Don't forget, the Iranian economy has been in shambles during the past 15 years. When it comes to this $40 billion oil contract, the Iranian currency lost 9/10th of its value since 2013, when President Ahmadinejad left office - they went from 3500 tomans to over 30,000 tomans [1 toman = 10,000 rials].,RussiaKremlin: Russia and Iran May Ditch Dollar When Measuring Bilateral Trade Volume18 July, 09:12 GMT,This has been a disaster. Because they decided to peg their currency even more toward a US dollar. And this is an Iranian liberal policy leaning more toward the West, whereas the Iranian conservatives have a tendency to lean more toward the growing economies of the east. There's demand for the Iranian currency that would hopefully have an impact on the Iranian rial currency to stop hemorrhaging. It's at a point where we could possibly face a major economic collapse in Iran, which would even make the prices of oil higher. I think Russia is stepping in at the right time, in the right place, especially in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and we'll see where that will go.,Sputnik: How important is Russia's and Iran's cooperation over the JCPOA, especially amid increased US attention towards a diplomatic resolution? How strong is Iran now in this regard?,Dr Azadgan: Washington has no one to blame but the previous administration. In 2018, President [Donald] Trump reneged from the P5+1 [the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (China, France, Russia, the UK and the US) plus Germany]. Iran was single-handedly negotiating with six superpowers, with one stroke of the pen President Trump got us out of that, and Iranians have lost all hopes in US in terms of their liberal persuasion within the Iranian political power structure. That's why we had Mr. Raisi coming in, the Conservatives coming in, and President Putin's visit to Iran, many visits to Iran during the liberal administration of President Rouhani, in my estimation, was an economic, political, geopolitical and military persuasion of Iranians to lean more towards the East.,Had the JCPOA been successful under the Rouhani administration, the country would have leaned westward for decades to come. Those policies failed, and as a result, we have conservatives in the Iranian executive branch, and there's a shift in power in that country. The JCPOA, I'm afraid, won't be going anywhere. It's just for keeping up appearances. Having said that, let us not forget that at the very beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Washington was very concerned to get reassurances from Russia that there is no nuclear non-proliferation going on by the Iranians.,Biden, Lapid Sign Joint Declaration Pledging to 'Never Allow Iran to Acquire Nuclear Weapon'14 July, 11:15 GMT,That's their number one concern in the Middle East right now because of the terrible relationship between Iran and Israel. But the fact that this topic came up in the first place shows how much Washington is worried, the Biden administration is worried that Iranians could be very close to having weapon-grade bomb, even though they clearly have denied it, for decades to come they claim they just want to enrich uranium and they want peaceful use of the technology. But Washington is not buying that.,Sputnik: What could Russia’s role be in securing the JCPOA?,Dr Azadgan: It's a very difficult situation. On the one hand, President Biden is desperate. His poll numbers are so low in this country because of inflation, because of the high price of oil. So if somehow the US and Iran decide, especially the US decides to bring Iran's oil production online - as you know, Iran is capable of exporting around 2,5 to 3 million barrels per day; under US sanctions it's not even 500,000. And the rest of it, let's just say they use creative methods of exporting the oil. If that supply comes online, the price of oil will come down. But I don't think Biden wants to negotiate at all with the Iranians, and the Iranians don't trust them. I think the Iranians really negotiated in good faith. If you ask me very naively that liberal Rouhani administration. And look at what they got for it, in 2018, just with a push of a pen, the whole thing was reneged. There's really not much to salvage out of JCPOA because I don't see any policy changes from the Biden administration at all.,West in Hurry to Conclude JCPOA Deal Amid Ukraine Crisis, Iranian Negotiator Says4 July, 13:52 GMT,They see Iran right now in the grips of conservatives. The conservatives are hawks just like any other nation. They negotiate more realistically, shall we say. And Iran is at a point where they have enriched uranium up to 60 percent. And militarily, they are very powerful. I think that for the time being, they have the upper hand, minus their economy, which is in shambles. But in other areas, they have the upper hand. It really depends on what kind of signals we get from the Biden administration and knowing how, unfortunately, the Israeli lobby plays such a crucial role in US foreign policy in the Middle East, we have also to keep in mind how willing Israel will be in back-channel communications possibly taking place. We do know, however, that under the Rouhani administration, this is a matter of fact, there were very covert back-channel conversations between Iran and Israel, and that was not to the liking of the IRGC and the conservatives. So it's very, very convoluted.,There's a massive deficit of trust between the US and Iran. And just because Russia is in a difficult position right now, I don't see Iranians turning their back toward the Russians and trust Washington and be disappointed again. The Iranians really have no one to trust, if you ask me. They're petrified of being of any superpower’s pawn. This is very important. There is no good history between some of Iran's new allies now. I think it's a battle of persuading the Iranian public on the policies that the Iranian government is suggesting. There's a lot of persuasion that needs to be done because they’re looking at decades to come. Literally the Russo-Iranian relations, which go further, they're looking at a change in policy for decades to come. I think Washington is very much petrified of that.,Sputnik: What about an agreement on grain exports? Can we expect a breakthrough in this, through the joint efforts of Russia and Turkey?,Dr Azadgan: We have to. We could be at the threshold of a famine in the world. Don't forget that the biggest importers of Russia's grain are some of the poorest countries in the world. The top five are Egypt at $3.2 billion; Turkey, since they are part of this negotiation in Tehran, at $1.7 billion a year, buying Russian wheat; Nigeria, one of the poorest countries in the world, but one of the richest in terms of natural resources, they import $566 million; Bangladesh, practically an economic disastrous country.,I'm afraid they will be next after Sri Lanka, they aim for $409 billion, followed by another very poor but powerful country, Pakistan, which imports close to $400 billion a year of Russian wheat. And then Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey are the fastest growing export markets for Russia. So it's extremely, extremely important because you're talking about the food supply chain security. The top five exporters of wheat in the world are first and foremost Russia, followed by the US, Australia, Canada and Ukraine at the fifth place. And after Ukraine it is France, Argentina and Germany. And the fastest export market for Ukraine is Pakistan, Lebanon and Vietnam.,Istanbul Grain DealErdogan Hopes to See Implementation of UN Plan on ‘Grain Issue’ in Coming Days20 July, 12:09 GMT,So Russia and Ukraine are finding themselves in a difficult competitive position for the Pakistani market. And everyone knows how Lebanon is on the verge of economic and social and political collapse. The only one that is somehow unscathed is Vietnam. So they just have to find a way to negotiate the export exit of Ukrainian wheat through the Black Sea, through the Turkish Strait and into the Middle Eastern and African markets, they are very much at risk.。外贸底气足，贸易型总部加快集聚 公司在中国，袜子成品则在东南亚采购，直接销售给欧美商家。这家名为“中昊针织”的企业，从2021年下半年开始探索“两头在外”的离岸贸易，当下累计货值已达200多万美元。
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四 | ” 另外，除30家受认定的贸易型总部外，商务区还集聚了锅圈、华峰、希杰等一批贸易型总部储备企业，已有提前布局未来之势。“我们的外贸底子仍然很厚，而且发展后劲很大——长三角一体化发展、进博会带来许多新机遇。
五 | 当前，以30家贸易型总部为代表的一批高能级贸易平台和主体在加快集聚。”虹桥国际中央商务区管委会办公室四级调研员毛翔宇说。抗风险能力强，区位和交通优势明显 长宁区临虹路365号——上海泰禾国际贸易有限公司坐落于此。“我们公司主要做植保产品和精化新材料等产品的研发、营销。立足上海，因为这里区位好、平台大。”公司总经理卜明星说。
六 | “上海虹桥国际中央商务区的区位、交通优势明显，公司距离虹桥国际机场、上海虹桥站仅3公里。”卜明星介绍，这里平台也多，公司借助在商务区举办的中国国际农用化学品及植保展览会等贸易展示平台，与多家跨国公司建立了合作关系，产品出口到了国外。今年1至8月，上海泰禾销售收入实现同比大幅增长。凭借区位和交通优势，商务区全力搭建多个平台，着力做强“长板”。在虹桥品汇A栋大楼，从地下一层进入，便直接来到虹桥进口商品展示交易中心直播基地。线上发力，外贸生意照做。再上一层，是虹桥进口商品展示交易中心，里面各类国外商品琳琅满目。上海虹桥国际进口商品展销有限公司总经理蔡军介绍，这里是展馆，也是商场，一到周末都是顾客。“我们充分利用进博会的平台优势，在这里建设了以虹桥品汇、绿地贸易港为代表的进博会常年展销平台，还建了包括虹桥国际咖啡港在内的10个百亿元级进口商品集散平台。
七 | ”蔡军说。细数商务区的平台，还不止于此。有以海外贸易中心、虹桥国际中央法务区为代表的贸易服务平台，有以上海虹桥临空经济园区、西虹桥商务区为代表的市服务贸易促进示范基地，有以虹桥进口商品展示交易中心等为代表的市跨境电子商务示范区…… 此外，离岸贸易、跨境电商新模式、保税展示等贸易新业态也正加速发展，进博会通关便利、资金结算、投资便利、人员出入境等创新政策上升为常态化制度安排。支持力度大，多措并举服务企业发展 6月30日，《关于支持虹桥国际中央商务区贸易型总部企业发展的若干措施》（以下简称《措施》）出台，25条支持措施干货满满。支持贸易型总部企业招才引智。《措施》明确住房保障、子女入学等便利化措施；加大对贸易型总部企业金融支持；管委会参照内资总部政策给予贸易型总部营运专项补贴和人才专项补贴…… 当前《措施》落地情况如何？进出口银行上海分行有关负责人表示，首期提供300亿元专项信贷额度。
八 | 中信保上海分公司有关负责人表示，已成立服务领导小组，以虹桥营业部为主体落实相关服务工作。企业有需求，政府有回应。
九 | 前期，有企业反映对当前复杂的国际贸易规则不太了解，对RCEP（区域全面经济伙伴关系协定）政策红利不太清楚。商务区快速回应，于7月21日设立RCEP企业服务咨询站（虹桥站）。
十 | 在位于申昆路2377号4号楼一楼的咨询站内，记者看到，这里有专门的服务人员驻守。接线员告诉记者，咨询站通过线上线下相结合的方式，为企业提供关税优惠、原产地规则等“一站式”信息服务。说话间，不时有企业打来电话询问，接线员立刻投入工作中。
十一 | 置身于虹桥国际中央商务区，人来人往，步履匆忙。一同随行的杨旭波，打开手机，向记者展示统计部门的数据：7月，商务区单月进口额环比增长52.32%。当前，上海外贸正摆脱各类不利因素影响，稳步走高。
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