乡约

B | 创业板指跌2.01%，报2499.35点。沪深两市所有交易个股涨跌比为681：4155，两市涨停31家，跌停3家。    "For decades now, the Pacific Ocean can be fairly described as an American lake, in which the US strategic presence is actively supported by the Australian and to a lesser extent New Zealand economic and security presence," says Joseph Camilleri, emeritus professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne.,However, with the People's Republic of China's (PRC) swift economic rise, it's hardly surprising that Beijing has started to explore new possibilities in the Pacific, according to the academic.,"What has particularly troubled the United States and its principal ally in the South Pacific, Australia, is the fact that China is making inroads into what was until now considered to be an exclusive American sphere of influence," he stresses.,On July 13, Vice President Kamala Harris told the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in Suva in a virtual address that US funding for the region would be stepped up to $60 million per year for 10 years. The newly announced endeavor includes more funding for fisheries, extra aid, and offers of new US embassies in the Pacific. In particular, the US is set to ink renewed fishing treaties with Pacific island nations allowing US vessels to fish in their exclusive economic zones (EEZ), and offering greater support for maritime surveillance in the Pacific. In addition to that, the Peace Corps – the United States government's volunteer program – will return to four countries, including Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, and Vanuatu, according to CNN.,Australia Welcomes 'Renewed Commitment' From US Towards Pacific, Willing to Work With China11:38 GMT,"The timing of the pledge has much to do with the strategic competition between the United States and China," Camilleri explains. "In recent years, China has made considerable headway in developing its relations with [the Pacific Island Forum (PIF)] board, including cooperation in political, security and regional affairs, aid and development, COVID response and health, Ocean affairs and climate change, and much else.",The US attempt to assert its presence in the Pacific region also comes on the heels of the Quad IUU Fishing Initiative announced in late May, according to Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.,The leaders of the Quad nations — Australia, India, Japan, and the United States – proposed a maritime surveillance initiative to establish a tracking system to combat illegal, unregulated, and unprotected (IUU) fishing. The Quad endeavor may be viewed as an extension of earlier initiatives against China's fishing activities in the South Pacific, according to the academic.,"The South Pacific region is presently one of the richest and most active fishery areas in the world," he highlights.,Why Asia Won't Reject Russia's Hydrocarbons or China's Rare Earths Despite US PressureYesterday, 18:54 GMT,Even if Half of Pacific Islands Ink China Pact, It'll be Beijing's Win,Two months ago, Beijing offered a draft agreement between China and 10 island nations spanning policing, security, fisheries, data, and a free trade zone. Some Pacific leaders have agreed to consider China's trade and security pact, while the others have voiced concerns that their rapprochement with Beijing could antagonize Washington.,"The Chinese proposal to establish a China-Pacific Islands cooperation framework agreement may not yet have won sufficient support but I expect that the Chinese side will persist with its proposal, and that it may be happy to proceed with it, even if only five or six Island states are prepared to sing such an agreement," says Camilleri.,Prior to that, in mid-April, the Chinese and the Solomon Islands governments formally signed a bilateral security agreement regardless of the displeasure voiced by the US, Australia, and New Zealand. Commenting on the pact on June 3, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi underscored that its purpose is "to assist the Solomon Islands in maintaining social order." He vehemently denied Western media speculation about China's apparent plans to beef up its military presence in the region.,"China has come to the South Pacific region to build roads and bridges and improve the people’s lives, not to station troops or build military bases," Wang highlighted.,© MANDEL NGANUS President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. US President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. © MANDEL NGAN,US-China Competition for Pacific Islands Region Will Intensify,As the US and China's competition for the resource-rich region unfolds, it all depends on what Washington and Beijing can offer to Pacific island nations, according to Camilleri.,"It is doubtful that the paltry sum of $60 million offered by the United States can even begin to match what China is offering, or that it will greatly impress the Pacific Islands States meeting in Fiji," the professor suggests.,Furthermore, China has made substantial progress in building trade relations with the countries of the region as well as in establishing diplomatic ties with the PIF. The People's Republic was first invited to attend the PIF-related Talk on Establishing Dialogue Partnership held in Suva, Fiji, in 1988. Since 1990, China has attended the Post-Forum Dialogue meetings on a regular basis. In 2003, China announced its willingness to further expand economic ties with PIF member countries as well as to provide funding for the forum's secretariat.,"According to official Chinese figures, from 1992 to 2021, total trade volume between China and Pacific Island Countries (PICs) having diplomatic relations with China grew from $153 million to $5.3 billion, registering an average annual increase of 13% and expanding by over 30 times in 30 years. Similarly, by the end of 2021, China’s direct investment in PICs having diplomatic relations with China had reached $2.72 billion," says Camilleri.,The competition between the United States and its allies on the one hand and China on the other will, if anything, gather pace and intensity in the years to come, the professor says, adding that Beijing's advantage is that "it comes to the table with a much bigger checkbook, and greater opportunities for trade and investment, especially in infrastructure projects."。个股方面，目前涨停股部分如下：中百集团(10.07%)、浙江永强(10.08%)、锦州港(10.03%)、中远海特(10.00%)、美邦服饰(9.83%)。从盘面上看，行业板块大部分下跌。零售、燃气、港口航运板块领涨，化学原料、电力、汽车服务等领跌。燃气方面，24种产品价格上涨，26种下降。

C | 其中，液化石油气（LPG）比上期上涨3%。美国通胀及利率对A股是次要矛盾，A股市场自7月以来的结构市回摆，震荡下行，仍在继续。交易结构失衡得到修正后的短期企稳属于反弹性质，市场结构偏向均衡，但主线不清晰。结构市的回摆期，至少回吐50%的涨幅，挑选个股盈利的概率不超过20%。本轮周期，中国与美国经济与市场完全不同步，A股的核心矛盾不是担心估值下杀，而是景气稀缺。海外衰退预期上升对出口依赖型公司的盈利预测带来影响，而其它景气维持类资产在国内乃至全球资产中的稀缺性将进一步上升。在投资策略上，首选“高景气赛道、军品占比高、业绩增速快”的标的，次选“估值低分位，边际变化大”的标的，同时重点关注国改受益标的。

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